Polling Bad News for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (Arkansas)

by Bill Smith (Ozark Guru): When polling numbers shows a senior senator in difficulty against potential candidates over a year out from the election, the news is bad news for that senator. And that is what is being projected for Arkansas' U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln who is up for election in 2010 and has been feverishly raising funds and avoiding the public at town halls and TEA Parties in Arkansas. Public Policy Polling latest polling data released August 26th shows that Obama campaigning for Sen. Lincoln in in Arkansas would sink her race. While Barack Obama's National approval rating of 52%, in Arkansas, Obama has only a 40% approval rating. And that is expected to continue to fall in Arkansas. In fact, the polling numbers showed that a majority of voters in Arkansas think Rush Limbaugh has a superior vision for the country than Barack Obama.

Blanche Lincoln's approval rating has dropped 9% since March.  Currently, Lincoln has 36% approval rating and a 44% disapproving rating of the job she’s doing. Currently, with no candidates formally filed for office against her, she's in a statistical tie against three potential Republican opponents. And there are as many as eight candidates considering running against her.

Gilbert Baker leads her 42-40, Curtis Coleman has a 41-40 advantage, and Tom Cotton trails Lincoln slightly 40-39. The numbers of course are more a reflection on Lincoln's unfavorable standing than that of the Republicans at this time.

“You couldn’t get a clearer indication that the national momentum is with Republicans right now than a poll showing some guys with single digit name recognition running even with an incumbent Senator,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This is going to be a very closely contested race if the eventual Republican nominee does a good job of raising money.

Other indicators of running against Lincoln is that 53% of the people polled were women. In addition, 48% of those polled identified themselves as conservative, and 39% as moderate, leaving 12% of her liberal friends. At the beginning of 2009, voters returned Senator Pryor to a new six term without opposition; however, , his approval rating, although higher than Lincoln, is now only 47% with a disapproval rating of 32%. The voters disappointment with a previously considered "more conservative" Sen. Pryor may weigh heavily on voters in 2010 when considering returning a more liberal Senator Blanche Lincoln .

There is a growing "vote the bums" out feeling among the voters in Arkansas. Also, in Arkansas, continued open endorsement and support of Senator Lincoln by incumbent State constitutional officers (Governor, Lt. Governor, etc.) may place them at risk in 2010 if viable conservative candidates step forward to oppose them.

As summarized by Tom Jensen, Public Policy Polling, "Clearly Lincoln could be beaten, but there are several reasons why she might survive too. The first is that none of her potential Republican opponents have shown the ability yet to raise the money to run a strong campaign. Whoever emerges as her opponent is also going to need to be able to keep their foot out of their mouth, something that's been a problem for some potential foes. The second is that Democrats nationally are in a recession right now and that goes a long way toward explaining these numbers.. . . Republicans have an opportunity here but it remains to be seen whether they can take advantage of it."

Does Marion Berry (AR-01) Accept Federal Farm Subsidies?

So which is it, Congressman? View the following video and referenced articles to find the truth! Marion Berry has long denied that he owns any farms that accept subsidies, yet his response to a question on the topic yesterday seems to contradict this. And the data shows "slick" Berry is may seem more dim witted with age but he has been more than smart enough to fleece the public for years.

Blue Dog Berry - Not so Blue With Farm Subsidy - Ken Cook at Mulch reports: Blue Dogs Are Big Winners In Subsidy-Laden Farm Bill . . .

Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry (D) Cashing In on Federal Service . . . receives farm subsidies . . . - Consider if you will, between 1996 and 2000, farm and land-holding companies that Berry owns with relatives in eastern Arkansas have received $750,449 in federal crop subsidies, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture records. . .

The Other King of Pork -- AR Representative Marion Berry - Congressman Marion Berry (D-AR) promises more pork barrel spending now that the Democrats are in charge of Congress. This is no surprise. Last year, the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette wrote, "Arkansas’ Rep. Marion Berry would like to be known as the king of pork. “Nothing would please me more,” he says. . . .

BOOT BERRY

Arkansas 1st District - Marion Berry No Blue Dog - The Video

ARRA New Service posted in Arkansas an advance copy of a new audio political ad from the National Republican Campaign Committee titled Marion Berry - No Blue Dog - Lap Dog for Speaker Pelosi. Many people in Arkansas' 1st District responded favorably to the pending NRCC ad. Now some more good news: John Allison, III, a fellow Arkansas blogger at America, You Asked For It! has cleverly designed the following video with the NRCC sound track.

Allison also shares, "This page on Berry’s website will lead you to believe he stands for a balanced budget, is against excessive borrowing by the federal government, and fights against “reckless spending.” That certainly sounds like a fiscally conservative Democrat, but an inspection of Berry’s votes on the Bank Bailout, the Auto Industry Bailout, Obama’s $787 billion Stimulus Spending Bill, and the latest Bloated Budget tells a different story. Berry voted for all of these, supporting all of those things a “Blue Dog” Democrat supposedly opposes. Score one for the NRCC. Berry’s obviously conning his constituent with false claims of fiscal conservatism."

The citizens of the Arkansas 1st Congressional District don't need a Pelosi "Lap Dog" or even a "Blue Dog" representing the 1st District. They need a real "Bull Dog" Conservative standing for Arkansas values, limited government and individual liberty.

Arkansas Resident Battles for Ohio Votes

Bill Smith, ARRA Editor: Al Hundley, a Baxter County, Arkansas resident, asked me "where can I best make a difference supporting John McCain for President." As National Political Director, Let's Get This Right, I asked "are you willing to travel and pay your expenses." As we talked, I emailed him a list of swing state offices and phone numbers. He said "yes I'm going!" and now he is in Ohio! Cleveland's WKYC TV 3 reported last night on Al Hundley's and Bob Klitzkie's work for the John McCain campaign in Ohio:

BRECKSVILLE -- Al Hundley and Bob Klitzkie are both a long way from home helping John McCain try to put Ohio in the victory column. Both men are retired, both are dedicated McCain backers, and both are bankrolling the cost of their travel, hotel room and food out of their own pocket. Both men asked to be assigned someplace where their work could make a difference.

Both are working at McCain's Brecksville campaign office for free, doing everything they are asked. That could include making calls, dropping off signs, running errands and helping set up rallies.

Hundley says, "I'm here to help John McCain win the Presidency. Whatever I can to to turn the tide and carry the day." Bob Klitzkie is from Guam in the Pacific. That means he cannot vote for President. Al Hundley is from Arkansas. Both men plan to stay through the election and both predict they'll be celebrating the outcome in Ohio. "The Klitzkie poll says Ohio's going for John McCain," Klitzkie predicts. [Video available]

Want to Help: Would you like to join Al, Bob and others in sharing John McCain’s plans for a prosperous America with Democrats and Independents? Citizen's for McCain will be knocking on doors, walking precincts and making phone calls in preparation for election day. You can join them in this effort through one of the many field offices in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida:

PENNSYLVANIA Northeast PA 420 North Main Ave Scranton, PA 18504 (570) 951-9223 Southeast PA 420 Norristown Rd Blue Bell, PA 19322 (717) 222-9804 East PA 2285 Schoenersvillle Rd, Space 27 Bethlehem, PA 18017 (717) 644-8778 Southwest PA 23 North Maple St Greensburg, PA 15601 (724) 836-0570 Northwest PA 125 Hillvue Lane Pittsburgh, PA 15237 (414) 458-1562

OHIO Northeast OH Near Youngstown) 621 Boardman-Canfield Rd Boardman, OH (330) 629-70006 Northeast OH (Near Cleveland) 7630 Chippewa Rd Brecksville, OH 44141 (440) 792-4704 Western OH 102 West Main St Springfield, OH 45503 (937) 322-4223

FLORIDA Greater Orlando 234 South Semoran Blvd Orlando, FL 32807 (407) 277-0880 Southern FL 2021 Tyler S. Holywood, FL 33020 (954) 397-6369 Tampa – St. Petersburg 142 West Platt Tampa, FL 33606 (813) 451-3857 Jacksonville 4963 Beach Blvd Jacksonville, FL 33207 (904) 716-0107

John McCain leads Barack Obama in Arkansas

ARRA News Service - Rasmussen Reports: John McCain’s lead over Barack Obama in Arkansas remains stable. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the Republican leading 51% to 42%. McCain had a 10-point lead in July and was ahead by nine points in June. . . . This month, McCain leads 56% to 31% among unaffiliated voters in Arkansas. He also has a 53% to 40% advantage among men and a 50% to 43% edge among women.

McCain is viewed favorably by 60% of voters and unfavorably by 38%. Obama’s ratings are 47% favorable, 52% unfavorable. Rasmussen Markets [as of this report] data gives McCain a 86.0% chance of carrying Arkansas this fall. . . .

Obama’s running mate, Joseph Biden, is viewed favorably by 44% of Arkansas voters and unfavorably by 49%. Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 58% and unfavorably by 39%. Voters in Arkansas think McCain made the right choice with Palin by a 56% to 34% margin. They disagree with Obama’s choice of Biden 49% to 27%. A plurality of voters (43%) considers Palin to be very conservative. Just 17% of voters see Biden as very liberal, while 28% view the Democrat as politically moderate. . . . [McCain Maintains Solid Lead in Arkansas ]

Poll Shows McCain Favored in Arkansas

ARRA News Service - Rasmussen Reports latest telephone survey in the Natural State finds John McCain leading Barack Obama 47% to 37%. When “leaners” are included, the GOP is ahead 52% to 39%. . . . Arkansas has cast its six Electoral College votes for Republican candidates in five out of the last seven Presidential elections. . . . McCain is backed by 91% of Republicans in Arkansas Obama earns support from 67% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, McCain leads 67% to 16%.
There is a huge racial divide as well. McCain leads 55% to 27% among white voters in Arkansas, while Obama leads 93% to 2% among black voters. The Republican has a 52% to 33% advantage among men, but the two candidates are essentially even among women. . . . [Rasmussen Report: Arkansas: McCain Up by Ten]