Monday, August 4, 2008

Virginia up for grabs... but not really.

Note: This post can also be found on Battle Ground States '08.

Viriginia is now a battleground state, except it's not.

We haven't voted for a democrat since 1964, and Bush won with a nearly 10% margin in each of his elections, but that isnt going to stop Barack Obama from trying.

Indeed, the growing population in the largely democratic north has given hope to the democratic presidential candidate that he may be able to grab our 13 electoral votes.

But how realistic are his chances? There is no doubt that the moderate north is swinging more democratic after the policies of Bush, but no democrat not named Mark Warner has won in the state with any substantial margin. Kaine barely accrued 51% of the vote and Jim Webb was still within the recount number. And these were in non-presidential years.

In other words, don't count it. At least thats what John McCain's campaign believes - his ads are clearly targeted at energizing the south. The strategy is simple - get the republican base to the polls. It worked for Bush and just about every Republican before him.

How about that news buzzing about that Obama may select Kaine as his running mate? Thats good news for Republicans. The governor is not very popular in his own state - after failing to alleviate the massive transportation problems and alienating the republican legislature, Kaine will deliver Virginia - to the Republicans.

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